In a recent discussion with commentator Joe Rogan, renowned geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan made an unexpected forecast. Zeihan thinks that there are only 10 years left before a potential catastrophe occurs before China collapses.
His claim that China has overstated its population figures is the foundation of his projection, leading him to calculate that the country’s actual population is 100 million fewer than what the government has officially declared.
China is in its final decade, Zeihan stated. So, you’re saying that China has 10 years to go? Rogan clarified by asking.He replied, “At most,” in answer.
Some contend that China’s massive military, dominance over its population, and economic dominance might serve as shields against its fall, while others point to alarming signals that suggest upcoming difficulties.
A number of factors are putting pressure on China’s economy, including the rigorous zero-COVID policy that caused civil unrest to break out, which resulted in lockdowns, decreased industrial output, and reduced consumer spending.
Regulatory Strain and Political Choices
The economy grew far less last year, hitting one of its lowest levels in the previous 50 years. Strict economic regulations and politically questionable choices had a particularly negative influence on the fourth quarter.
There are fewer people of working age to support seniors because China’s population is aging quickly. The one-child policy, which was in place for more than three decades before coming to an end in 2016, made things worse and jeopardized future economic possibilities.
China has made an effort to remedy this by allowing couples to have up to three children, although it is still unclear how much of an impact this will have on the labor force.
An extended downturn has been plaguing the Chinese real estate industry. The nation’s housing values fell sharply once more in 2022, the biggest annual decline since 2015. Construction, steel, and cement have all felt the effects of the downturn, which has affected demand and resulted in job losses and a general slowdown in economic growth.
The Chinese government is quite concerned about the current real estate crisis. The government has put in place a number of measures, such as tax rebates and subsidies for homebuyers, to halt the drop and stabilize the market.
Home price declines have persisted despite these initiatives, which presents a substantial problem for policymakers looking for workable answers.